A narrower 0.5865/0.5985 range is likely enough to contain the price movements for now, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Any decline is unlikely to break clearly below 0.5885
24-HOUR VIEW: “In the early Asian session yesterday, we indicated that ‘the current price movements are likely part of a range trading phase between 0.5910 and 0.5960.’ However, instead of trading in a range, NZD fell to 0.5895, closing at 0.5898 (-0.70%). The increase in downward momentum is not enough to indicate a sustained decline. Instead, it is more likely to lead to a lower range of 0.5885/0.5925. To put it another way, any decline is unlikely to break clearly below 0.5885.”
1-3 WEEKS VIEW: “We have expected NZD to trade in a range since the middle of last week. Yesterday (22 May, spot at 0.5935), we highlighted that ‘While the price action over the past couple of days provides no fresh clues, a narrower 0.5865/0.5985 range is likely enough to contain the price movements for now.’ There is no change in our view. Looking ahead, should NZD break clearly below 0.5865, it could trigger a decline.”