Bullish view
- Buy the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3430.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3200.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the GBP/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.3200.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.3430.
The GBP/USD pair dropped slightly after hitting the crucial resistance level at 1.3430. It dropped to 1.3310 as the recent US dollar crash paused after Donald Trump changed his mind on trade and his thoughts of firing Jerome Powell.
UK retail sales jumped in March
The GBP/USD pair dropped even after a report by the Office of National Statistics (ONS) showed that the UK economy was doing well. UK retail sales rose by 0.4% in March, beating analysts estimates that they would fall. This report indicated that UK retailers had their best start to the year since 2021, with a 1.6% increase.
The outlook for the UK consumer is cloudy as Donald Trump tariffs start to hit and household energy bills rise. Some analysts believe that these tariffs will lead to higher inflation, while others expect them to be deflationary as China diverts goods destined to the US to other countries.
Analysts expect the Bank of England (BoE) to start cutting interest rates as soon as in its meeting in May. It hopes that the rate cut will help to supercharge the economy. Besides, many companies and consumers cite high interest rates as a key hindrance to growth.
The next key GBP/USD pair news will come out on Tuesday when the Conference Board publishes the latest consumer confidence data. Analysts anticipate that the data will reveal a drop in confidence in April as consumers adjusted to Donald Trump’s tariffs.
Trump delivered his Liberation Day speech earlier this month, announcing sweeping tariffs against goods from all countries. The US is now charging at least 10% tariff on all goods brought to the country.
The pair also reacted to a statement by Donald Trump that he would not fire Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve.
GBP/USD technical analysis
The daily chart indicates that the GBP/USD pair has been in a strong uptrend over the past few months, as it rose from a low of 1.2100 in January to a high of 1.3430 last week. Most importantly, the pair has formed a cup-and-handle pattern, with its upper side at 1.3431.
The recent pullback is part of the formation of the handle section. It remains above the 50-day moving average, while the MACD indicator has remained above the zero line.
Therefore, the pair will likely continue rising, with the key level to watch being at 1.3431, the upper side of the C&H pattern. A move above that level will point to more gains, with the next level to watch being at 1.3500.
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