Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 38.05.
- Set a stop-loss order below 37.85.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 40.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 40.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 41.50.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 37.15.
Turkish Lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY price has stabilized at the same levels it traded at during the past week. The dollar rose slightly against the lira, but the price did not exceed the 38.45 lira levels.
A Reuters survey revealed monetary policy updates expected to be passed by the Central Bank of Turkey, which is preparing to return to stimulating the economy by cutting interest rates by the end of the second quarter of this year. Furthermore, this comes after raising interest rates during the last meeting earlier this month from 42.5% to 46%, according to the Reuters survey. The forecasts include an interest rate cut of 200 basis points to reach 44%, with continued rate cuts until the 35% levels by the end of 2025 and further rate cuts down to 25.75% by the end of the third quarter of next year.
This shift followed a surprise decision on April 17th to raise interest rates by 350 basis points to support the lira, which faced severe pressure following internal political turmoil. Despite the temporary return of the monetary tightening path, analysts expect a return to interest rate cuts supported by slowing inflation.
Inflation slowed on an annual basis to 38.1% in March, while forecasts revealed continued expectations of declining inflation to 24% by the end of the year. Economists estimate it will reach 29.5% this year and 20.3% by the end of next year.
In contrast, the Turkish economy has rebounded with expectations of 2.9% growth this year and 3.5% in 2026. Meanwhile, the current account deficit is expected to range around 1.4% and 1.5% of GDP in the next two years.
TRYUSD technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
Technically, the USD/TRY pair has stabilized below the peak recorded last week at 38.45 lira. Recently, the price has penetrated the sideways range it had been trading within for the past few weeks. Also, the price has moved to trade above the 50-period moving average on the four-hour timeframe. This supports the continuation of the price increase, especially with a break above the 38.45 lira levels supported by the long-term bullish overall trend. Turkish lira price forecasts indicate slight increases for the pair, targeting the resistance levels of 38.87, 40.00, and 41.01 respectively.
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