USD/JPY pushed higher after the Bank of Japan held policy steady and delivered a dovish message, but we continue to expect gradual JPY appreciation as safe haven demand and domestic inflows persist despite near-term positioning risks, Société Générale’s FX analysts note.
Long-term bias remains bearish
“USD/JPY decline has stalled near 2024 low of 139.50. Daily MACD has crossed above its trigger line denoting receding downward momentum. The pair has carved out a higher trough at 142 recently.”
“Ongoing bounce could extend in short-term towards 145.50 and projection of 146.15/146.50, which is also the low of March. This could be an interim resistance zone. Defence of the recent pivot low at 142 is crucial for persistence in rebound.”