Today’s BTC/USD Signals
- Risk 0.50% per trade.
- Trades prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $97,058, $95,733, or $95,206.
- Put the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $100,306 or $100,886.
- Put the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast on 16th April that either a short trade from another failure at $86,215 or even a long trade from a bullish bounce at $81,203 could be good trade entries. I expected the price to consolidate within this area until at least there was any more news about changes to the new US tariffs.
This was a good call as the price remained within this range, but the extremes were never reached so none of my trade signals were triggered.
The technical picture has become much more bullish now. The price has previously been trying and failing to get established above the former key resistance level near $96,000 but the breakout has finally happened, with the price rising strongly in recent hours to trade at a new 2-month high price very close to the big round number at $100,000. The price is now only a few thousand from its all-time high which it made last December.
The bullishness in Bitcoin is significant considering that the US Dollar is also advancing. I think we should definitely be looking for long trades, the problem now is that there are no key support level before $97,058 which probably won’t be reached today. It might be best to look for a natural new support formation on a shorter time frame, making sure that there is enough room between the entry price and $100,000 where bullish moves are likely to stall.
I will be entering a long-term long trade only once we get a new record high closing price above $109,026.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be a release of Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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