Breaking $135 opens the door to $163–$174 amid AI data-centre demand and institutional flows.
Highlights
- NVDA cleared the 131.42–134.48 demand zone and closed at 135.32 on May 16.
- Volume-profile POC (115.43–126.48) now acts as strong support; VWAP remains bullish.
- Near-term targets: 139.42 (VAH), 142.47, then all-time high 153.13.
- Pullback entry zone: 131.42–134.48; stop-loss below 131.42 (or 126.48 for wider buffer).
- Key catalysts: May 28 Q1 earnings, AI data-centre capex updates, China export regulations.
Technical Analysis
Price Structure & Channels
NVDA has re-entered its medium-term bullish channel after reclaiming 126.00, rallying from 102.50 to 135.32 in six weeks. Higher highs and higher lows within the ascending regression channel confirm sustained buyer conviction.
Volume Profile & VWAP
- Value Area (115.43–126.48): High-volume node providing demand support.
- VWAP: Price has held above the VWAP midline since early April, signalling institutional accumulation.
Key Levels
- Support:
- 131.42–134.48 (breakout retest zone)
- 126.48 (prior VAH)
- 115.43 (POC)
- Resistance:
- 139.42 (VAH)
- 142.47
- 153.13 (all-time intraday high)
- 163.40–174.45 (upper channel boundary)
Fundamental Drivers
- AI & Data-Centre Demand: Q1 Data Centre revenue hit $22.6 billion (up 427% YoY), driven by hyperscaler orders for Hopper/Blackwell GPUs.
- Strategic Partnerships: The new 500 MW AI data-centre partnership with Saudi firm Humain initially deployed 18,000 GB300 chips.
- Earnings Outlook: Consensus expects Q2 revenue of ~$28 billion and double-digit EPS growth into FY 2026.
- Valuation & Upgrades: Recent price-target raises from UBS, Melius, and others reinforce a constructive outlook amid a $3 trillion market cap.
Outlook & Trading Plan
- Bullish Continuation
- Aggressive Entry: Long on daily close > 134.48; target 139.42 → 142.47.
- Conservative Entry: Wait for pullback into 131.42–134.48; confirm demand with uptick in volume.
- Risk Management
- Stop-Loss: Below 131.42 for breakout entries; below 126.48 for deeper buffers.
- Profit Taking
- Scale out 25–50% at 139.42; next tranche at 142.47.
- Trail stops to lock in gains on remaining position, aiming for 153.13 and beyond.
- Watchlist Catalysts
- May 28 Q1 Earnings: Guidance and margin outlook.
- AI Capex Trends: Announcements from major data-centre customers.
- Geopolitical & Regulatory: China export rules, U.S. trade policy updates.