The oil market is under renewed pressure as noise builds around what OPEC+ will do with their July output levels, ING’s commodity experts Ewa Manthey and Warren Patterson note.
EU wants to lower the G7 price cap for Russian oil
“There are reports suggesting the group is considering another large supply increase, similar to those in May and June output. This would cement the shift in policy from the group — moving from defending prices to defending market share. In our balance sheet, we assume that OPEC+ will go ahead with a 411k b/d supply increase for July.”
“Therefore, our price forecasts will remain unchanged if an increase of this size is confirmed at the beginning of next month. We currently forecast Brent to average US$59/bbl in the fourth quarter. The front-month ICE Brent timespread has also come under pressure, falling from a backwardation of US$0.74/bbl at the start of the week to around US$0.50/bbl.”
“Meanwhile, following a G7 summit in Canada, finance ministers have threatened further sanctions against Russia if no progress is made towards a peace deal with Ukraine. In addition, the EU is throwing around the idea of lowering the G7 price cap for Russian oil to US$50/bbl from US$60/bbl. Russian Urals are currently trading at around US$55/bbl, which allows western shipping services to be used in the trade of this oil.”