Bullish view
- Buy the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1570.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1250.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the EUR/USD pair and set a take-profit at 1.1250.
- Add a stop-loss at 1.1570.
The EUR/USD exchange rate retreated slightly after the recent Eurozone inflation and US jobs data. After peaking at 1.1453, it dropped to 1.1378 as focus shifts to the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) decision and US jobs data.
ECB decision and US jobs data
The EUR/USD pair retreated after the latest European inflation data. A report by Eurostat showed that the European inflation dropped to 1.9%, slightly below the ECB target of 2.0%. It moved from April’s 2.2%, and was the first time that it moved below the target since September last year.
Analysts believe that European’s inflation will continue falling in the coming months because of the stronger euro, which has jumped by almost 10% from the lowest point this year.
The European inflation data came ahead of Thursday’s European Central Bank decision. Economists expect the bank will cut interest rates by 0.25% for the eighth time. They also see it delivering another cut later this year.
The EUR/USD pair also retreated after the US published strong JOLTs jobs numbers. Data shows that the number of vacancies rose from 7.2 million in March to 7.39 million.
ADP will publish the private nonfarm payrolls data. Economists expect that the numbers to show that the private sector added 115,000 in May from 62k in the previous month. The Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the official nonfarm payrolls data on Friday.
The EUR/USD pair also reacted to a warning by the OECD on Donald Trump’s tariffs. OECD, a club of wealthy nations, warned that the US economy would grow by 1.6% this year, down from 2.2% a month earlier. It cited Trump’s tariffs and the retaliatory ones from other countries.
EUR/USD technical analysis
The daily chart shows that the EUR/USD pair has been in a strong bull run in the past few months. It jumped from a low of 1.0185, its lowest level on January 13.
The pair has moved to 1.1217, the upper side of the cup-and-handle pattern, a popular bullish continuation sign. It remains inside the upper and middle lines of the Bollinger Bands.
The EUR/USD pair has remained above the 50-day moving average. Therefore, it will likely continue rising as bulls target the key resistance at 1.1570, the highest point in April. A move above that level will point to more upside, potentially to 1.1600.
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Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.