The Australian Dollar is the weakest major currency today following a surprise increase in Australian unemployment data, which is leading to an increased expectation that the RBA will cut its Cash Rate at its August meeting.
My previous AUD/USD signal on 14th July produced a profitable long trade from the bullish rejection of the support level I identified at $0.6542.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.50%
- Trades must be taken prior to 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6495, $0.6541, or $0.6550.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6461, $0.6420, or $0.6407.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Take off 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast last Monday, I wrote that this currency pair was looking less bullish after advancing, with the factors behind the rise likely to fade away which would naturally cause the price to move lower.
This was a good call, as although the best opportunity on the day was a long trade, the price has trended lower over the past few days.
Bearish momentum picked up steam with the release a few hours of worse than expected Australian unemployment data, which shows a weak labour market, increasing expectations that the Bank of Australia will cut rates at its policy meeting in August.
The other side of this pair is the US Dollar. After getting a small hit yesterday when President Trump’s comments about firing Fed Chair Jerome Powell leaked, the US Dollar is again rising firmly, so this currency pair is right at the heart of the Forex market right now.
As there are a few reasons mentioned above to be bearish, I will be looking for short trades in this currency pair with entry triggered by a rejection of any resistance level, especially $0.6495 if the big round number at $0.6500 is rejected simultaneously.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of Retail Sales and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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