My previous AUD/USD signal last Thursday was not triggered as there was no bearish price action when the price first reached the resistance level which I had identified at $0.6308..
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.50%
- Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6368, $0.6388, or $0.6401.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6310 or $0.6233.
- Put the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to run.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous forecast, I thought that the price would likely continue trading sideways between $0.6233 and the closest resistance at $0.6308. I was wrong, there was a bullish breakout beyonf $0.6308 which has maintained momentum.
In today’s AUD/USD forecast I predict that the AUD/USD currency pair is most likely to continue to rise, due to the following factors:
- We see the price having made a new 2-month high yesterday, although the price is still being held by the nearby resistance level at $0.6368. The price action suggests we will see another bullish breakout on this momentum, and a further rise.
- The Australian Dollar is one of the stronger major currencies, picking up as global risk appetite picks up. The RBA’s 0.25% rate hike earlier today has not weakened the currency at all, as the Bank pushed back against speculation it would make another three cuts over the course of 2025.
- Although the US Dollar is a bit higher over the past couple of days, it has weakened significantly, to the point that its long-term bullish trend has been invalidated. The short-term trend seems to be against the greenback.
For these reasons, I am equally OK with a long trade from a rejection of $0.6310 or a long trade following a breakout above $0.6368, signalled by two consecutive higher hourly closes without significant upper wicks. The breakout trade looks likely to be the better bet.
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