My previous BTC/USD signal on 17th February was not triggered, as the bearish reversal happened above the nearest resistance level.
Today’s BTC/USD Signals
Risk 0.50% per trade.
Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Friday.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry after a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $85,305, $81,756, or $80,741.
- Place the stop loss $100 below the local swing low.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry after a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe following the next touch of $87,972, $91,250, or $93,010.
- Place the stop loss $100 above the local swing high.
- Adjust the stop loss to break even once the trade is $100 in profit by price.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the trade is $100 in profit by price and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
BTC/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous BTC/USD forecast on 17th February that Bitcoin was looking heavy and likely to break down below the $95,000 area. I thought that this could send the price to the next support level just above $93,000 or even lower.
This was a good and accurate call, although it took a quite a while to play out so wasn’t especially useful on the day.
There is market turbulence, and risky assets, including Bitcoin, have suffered due to recent speculation about US tariffs and questions over the earnings of major companies. We took another blow last night with President Trump’s comments on new tariffs against the EU, Mexico, and Canada, and this sent Bitcoin tumbling strongly to a new 3-month low near the support level of $81,756.
This looked very bearish, but the bullish rebound over the past few hours has been very strong and suggests there was some serious buying at or near the lows which has driven the price up. We are also seeing a general recovery in risky assets as today gets underway, which is a natural rebound.
I am generally bearish on Bitcoin, but I am not sure we are going to see any kind of downwards move today, making a prediction for the day very difficult.
I see a short trade from $91,250 as unlikely to set up today, but if it does and we get a serious bearish reversal at that level, it could be an excellent short trade entry.
A reversal at $87,927 or at the round number of $90,000 is also a possibility, but I would have less confidence in these short trades.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding Bitcoin. Concerning the US Dollar, there will be releases of Advance GDP and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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