- Renewed selling pressures on the euro against the US dollar EUR/USD with losses around the support level of 1.0375 at the beginning of this week’s trading coincide with the anticipation of financial markets and investors for the European Central Bank’s announcement of interest rates and then the announcement of US employment figures.
- Last week, according to licensed trading companies’ platforms, the euro dollar price rose to the resistance level of 1.0528, but disappointment in resolving the Russian Ukrainian crisis after Trump’s meeting with the Ukrainian president last week contributed to renewed euro selling operations.
European Events Affecting the Euro’s Performance
According to the economic calendar data, the consumer price index in the eurozone is expected to reach 2.3% on an annual basis compared to 2.5% previously, while the core consumer price index is expected to reach 2.6% on an annual basis compared to 2.7% previously. There is some risk aversion in the markets, so the weak report is likely to ease some inflation concerns and give the ECB more confidence to continue easing policy. However, the higher-than-expected numbers are likely to keep markets on edge. The market is expecting a total of 87 basis points of easing by the end of the year.
This week, the European Central Bank is also expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, bringing the interest rate to 2.50%. furthermore, we will get the Eurozone’s flash CPI report two days before the meeting, so it is likely to shape their future sentiment. There has been growing concern among some ECB officials about easing interest rates too quickly amid high services price inflation (which has been stuck at around 4% since November 2023) and a tight labour market.
US Tariff Path and Market Impact
The tariffs imposed by US President Trump on major US trading partners are scheduled to take effect in the coming days. Furthermore, investors have been trying to determine potential winners and losers for weeks. Markets were shaken last week after Trump said that tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico, along with an additional 10% tariff on Chinese goods, would take effect. Recently, he announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminium and 25% tariffs on goods from the European Union.
Trading Tips:
The euro’s gains will remain vulnerable to a rapid collapse, especially if Trump’s policies hurt the eurozone economy, which is already suffering from other factors and the US dollar has more strength factors.
France’s Credit Rating Downgrade
Continuing the increasing pressure on the Euro’s performance in Forex market trading, Standard & Poor’s Global Ratings placed a negative outlook on its creditworthiness assessment of France, confirming the continued uncertainty about the country’s finances after a long period of political turmoil. The rating agency said in a statement issued late Friday that the change in outlook reflects “rising government debt amid weak political consensus to address France’s large underlying budget deficit, against a backdrop of uncertain economic growth prospects.”
Standard & Poor’s maintained its AA- rating for France, seven notches above junk bonds and in line with the Czech Republic and Slovenia. Standard & Poor’s decision comes as France adopted its 2025 budget this month after a gruelling parliamentary battle that led to the government’s collapse in December. The final finance bill aims to reduce the deficit to 5.4% of economic output this year from 6% in 2024 – a less ambitious adjustment than the initial plan to reduce it to 5%.
The French Finance Ministry said in a statement that the 2025 budget represents a “historic turning point” in efforts to reduce the budget deficit and control debt. The ministry added, “The negative outlook reminds us of the scale of the challenge of reforming our public finances, a challenge that the government is determined to face.”
Standard & Poor’s expects France’s gross domestic product growth to fall below 1% this year, further straining the fiscal outlook.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
According to the daily chart trading, the EUR/USD price movement around and below the support level of 1.0360 threatens the recently formed upward channel and portends an upcoming move by bears to lower support levels, with the closest being 1.0280 and 1.0200, respectively. Technically, these are sufficient to push technical indicators such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and MACD indicator towards strong oversold levels. Conversely, and over the same time frame, the resistance levels of 1.0550 and 1.0640 will remain the most important to begin strengthening the recently formed upward channel. So far, the EUR/USD sell-from-every-upward-level trading strategy is the strongest.
Ready to trade our Forex daily analysis and predictions? Here are the best trading platform for beginners to choose from