My previous EUR/USD signal on 26th February was not triggered, as the bullish price action took place between the two nearest support levels without rejecting either one.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm London time today.
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0686, $1.0746, or $1.0772.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.0638, $1.0603, or $1.0498.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous EUR/USD analysis last Wednesday, I wrote that the EUR/USD currency pair was likely to stay within its recent range, with the best potential opportunity being a long scalp from a rejection of $1.0486.
This was not a useful call as that support level did not hold, but I was right about the price basically ranging.
Conditions have changed and are now dramatically different. The trade war between the USA on one hand and Canada and Mexico and other potential countries on the other, has begun to hit the US Dollar hard, with the Euro and the British Pound currently being the biggest beneficiaries. The Euro is especially strong as investors move out of Dollars and into Euros as a substitute major store of value currency, and this is putting this pair at the heart of the market right now.
The bullish move is strong, there is great upwards momentum, and technical factors are being blown out of the water. Support and resistance levels mean nothing in these conditions. The price is trading in blue sky, into new 3-month highs, close to 4-month highs.
The price will keep rising strongly until it stops, which is hard to forecast. One thing that would halt the rise would be if a deal on tariffs were announced, and this is quite possible – it could happen at any time.
The best approach to trading this pair right now is just to buy any dips on a short-term time frame. Key levels and indicators are not likely to be useful.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the Euro. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change forecast at 1:15pm London time, followed by ISM Services PMI data at 3pm.
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