The USD/ZAR has started this morning’s trading with a slight upturn, but the currency pair remains within the lower elements of its mid-term range, yet nervousness may be starting to increase for the Rand.
The USD/ZAR is near the 18.31300 ratio as of this writing depending on the fluctuations being seen on trading screens. The USD/ZAR correlated well to the broad Forex market last week and on Friday was challenging lows near the 18.05000 vicinity. The USD/ZAR did trade at lows around 17.05000 level in late September, so some bearish traders may have ambitious plans for more downwards momentum.
However, before sellers get ahead of themselves, they should consider the notion that nervous sentiment in South Africa domestic politics and economics are rising once again. Loadshedding is again being seen throughout the nation. There are legitimate budget worries because fiscally South Africa doesn’t appear to have enough cash on hand to meet payments for various infrastructure and manpower needs.
Financial Institutions and Correlations to Broad Forex Market
Yes, up to now the USD/ZAR has shown a healthy correlation with the broad Forex market. The selling seen last week in the currency pair matched the bearish trend in other major forex pairs. Timeframes will have to be considered by day traders who want to keep pursuing the synergy the USD/ZAR has with other major Forex pairs if USD centric outlooks remain weaker. Pursuing selling positions may remain the correct perspective when resistance levels are tested in the near-term, this if other major currency pairs are showing similar characteristics.
The concerns in financial institutions in South Africa are growing however, and traders of the USD/ZAR should monitor concerns in the nation that may start to become louder. The coalition government which has delivered a much smoother set of circumstances since the early summer of 2024 is still holding and this may provide comfort for financial institutions to still pursue lower USD/ZAR values per their outlooks. Yet, it will be wise to look for signs of growing unease.
Technical Resistance is Important for the USD/ZAR
Day traders in the USD/ZAR should be on the lookout for movement in the currency pair that doesn’t correlate to the broad market. Perhaps this will not take place and if opposite moves do not occur that would be a good thing. This would show financial institutions remain concentrated on USD centric modes and their risk appetite.
- However, if the USD/ZAR begins to trade in a different manner compared to the broad Forex market, then it will be a sign the currency pair is once again transacting under a shadow which is being influenced by domestic concerns.
- The short-term remains within the grasp of a correlation for traders it appears to the broad Forex marketplace.
- But if resistance levels start to prove vulnerable in the USD/ZAR when other pairs are showing signs of gaining against the USD, traders will need to prepare for price considerations which made the South African Rand a volatile currency and shrouded by upwards nervousness.
USD/ZAR Short Term Outlook:
Current Resistance: 18.31800
Current Support: 18.29010
High Target: 18.39000
Low Target: 18.23400
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