Key Analysis Points:
- Gold Remains in an Uptrend.
- Gold Bulls Await Further Stimulus to Advance.
- Tensions from Trump’s Policies Will Support the Market.
Amid the lack of further stimulus for the gold market and the markets’ anticipation of US inflation figures, gold prices were exposed to profit-taking sales starting from the resistance level of $2918 per ounce with losses to the level of $2880 per ounce before settling around the level of $2888 at the beginning of trading today, Tuesday. So far, the general trend of the gold price index remains upward, and profit-taking sales are normal. According to gold trading companies’ platforms, the decline in the price of gold bullion comes from a weekly gain of 0.4% and rises by about 11% this year 2025.
Trump’s Policies Continue to Upset Markets and Affect Forecasts
At the beginning of this week’s trading, US stock market indices declined amid US President Donald Trump’s refusal to rule out an economic recession in an interview with Fox News over the weekend. Trump stated, “I hate to predict things like that.” “There’s a transition period because what we’re doing is so big—we’re bringing wealth back to America. It takes a while.”
In general, the tariffs have caused market turmoil, leading to broader fears of a recession. Recession fears have been exacerbated by the Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDP model estimates, which now indicate an economic contraction of 2.4% in the first quarter. According to market trading, the Nasdaq Composite Index, which is interested in technology stocks, is now in the contraction zone, meaning it has fallen 10% from its highs. Echoing Trump’s comments, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said he believes there is “zero chance” the US will fall into recession.
Moreover, investors aren’t buying it as they flocked to safe-haven assets, including US Treasuries. By market close, US Treasury yields were down, with the 10-year note yield down 9.7 basis points to 4.221%. The 2-year note yield erased 7.9 basis points to 3.923%, and the 30-year note yield fell 8.4 basis points to 4.532%.
Another factor affecting the gold market, the US dollar stabilized as the US dollar index (DXY), a measure of the greenback against a basket of major currencies, rose 0.03% to 103.87. last week, the US dollar index fell 2.7% and is down more than 4% this year. As is known, gold is sensitive to lower interest rates and a weak US dollar because the former affects the alternative cost of holding non-yielding bullion and the latter makes it cheaper for foreign investors to buy dollar-denominated assets.
Trading Tips:
I still prefer to buy gold from every downward level, but without risk and monitoring the factors affecting the market.
Gold Price Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
According to daily chart trading, and despite recent selloffs, gold analysts’ forecasts today still confirm the continued strength of the upward trend. Stability around and above the $2900 per ounce resistance will continue to motivate bulls to initiate technical buy trades upward. Expectations for a move towards the historical psychological resistance of $3000 will return if they first move towards the resistance levels of $2955 and $2978 per ounce, respectively. Amid current selloffs, the closest support levels for gold prices on the same time frame will be $2873 and $2858 per ounce, respectively.
Dear reader, carefully monitor the factors affecting the gold market, primarily the US dollar price and the extent of investor risk appetite, in addition to increasing global geopolitical tensions and the amount of gold bullion purchases by central banks.
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