AUD/USD is struggling to sustain a break above its 200-day moving average at 0.6455. Australia’s labor market remains strong and bodes well for AUD, BBH’s FX analysts report.
RBA seen easing cautiously as employment surges in April
“Employment overshot consensus rising 89k in April (consensus: 22.5k) vs. 36.4k in March. Full-time jobs increased 59.5k vs. 12.2k in March, and part-time jobs rose 29.5k vs. 24.2k in March. The unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1% and the labor force participation rate increased to 67.1% vs. 66.8% in March, just shy of the 67.2% record high.”
“RBA cash rate futures continue to fully price-in a 25bps cut to 3.85% at next week’s policy meeting as inflation pressures have eased. However, the solid jobs market means the RBA will keep rates restrictive or above neutral for longer. Based on the average of the RBA’s seven models, the nominal neutral rate is between 2.75% and 3.00%.”
“Cash rate futures imply 75bps of total easing over the next 12 months (down from 100bps before the jobs data) and the policy rate to bottom at 3.25%.”