My previous AUD/USD signal on 15th April was not triggered, as none of the key support or resistance levels given were reached that day.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.50%
- Trades may only be entered before 5pm Tokyo time Thursday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6460, $0.6467, or $0.6491.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6416, $0.6401, or $0.6476.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous forecast about one month ago, I thought this currency pair could be vulnerable to a significant bearish retracement, if not an outright bearish reversal. So, I was looking for a short trade after a firm rejection of $0.6392, but this did not set up.
One month later, the Forex market is dull and ranging. One look at the price chart below shows the price has been ranging aimlessly for weeks, and when you look at the price range, you can see it is relatively narrow – maybe 150 pips at most, so volatility is quite low.
In this market condition, trading reversals from support or resistance levels, especially at extremes, is usually the best approach. However, the price is some way from either extreme. The price is now sitting on the support level of $0.6416. The longer the price holds at this level, the better chance a long trade from here will have.
Apart from this, the best opportunities which might set up will be a short trade from $0.6491 or a long trade from $0.6376.
The general market condition might change later early in the upcoming New York session, as there will be a slew of high-impact US data releases.
There is nothing of high importance due today concerning the AUD. Regarding the USD, there will be releases of PPI, Retail Sales, and Unemployment Claims data at 1:30pm London time.
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