My previous AUD/USD signal on 17th July was not triggered.
Today’s AUD/USD Signals
- Risk 0.50%
- Trades must be taken before 5pm Tokyo time Wednesday.
Short Trade Ideas
- Short entry following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6541, $0.6554, or $0.6569.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Long entry following a bullish price action reversal on the 1H1 time frame H1H1H1 time frame immediately upon the next touch of $0.6495 or $0.6448.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
AUD/USD Analysis
In my previous AUD/USD forecast almost two weeks ago, I wrote that this currency pair was showing bearish momentum, so I was looking for a short trade. None set up that day, and the price in fact made a strong bullish bounce producing a move higher after rejecting $0.6458 so this was not a great call.
The technical picture is again looking bearish, although it is not very clear why – it just seems that markets have enjoyed some good times for risky assets and are now feeling the fear that the rally has gone too far. The defining feature of this move is the strong advance by the US Dollar which we have seen yesterday and today. So, there is bearish momentum, and this pair declined by quite a lot.
Despite this bearishness, we do see the price has now approached close to the key support level, which is likely to be strong, at $0.6495. This is very confluent with the major round number at $0.6500, and the price was very comfortable in this area when it was last there, so I think we might see the start of a bullish swing from here.
I would look for a speculative long trade today from a rejection of the $0.6500 area, but be ready to take profit if the US Dollar momentum seems to get going again.
Concerning the AUD, there will be a release of CPI (inflation) data at 2:30am London time. Regarding the USD, there will be a release of JOLTS Job Openings data at 3pm.
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