Bullish view
- Buy the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 120,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 110,000.
- Timeline: 1-2 days.
Bearish view
- Sell the BTC/USD pair and set a take-profit at 110,000.
- Add a stop-loss at 120,000.
Bitcoin price remained under pressure this week as ETF outflows continue and trade risks remain. The BTC/USD pair was trading at 113,800 on Wednesday, down sharply from the all-time high of 123,192.
Recent data indicate that demand for Bitcoin among investors is softening. For example, data shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs had over $643 million in outflows last week, ending a seven-week streak. These funds have shed over $300 million in assets this week.
The BTC/USD pair drop mirrored that of the stock market as traders reacted to the weakening services PMI and sticky prices. The blue-chip Nasdaq 100 Index dropped by 189 points, while the S&P 500 and Dow Jones fell by 30 and 61 points, respectively.
On the positive side, there are signs that the Federal Reserve may decide to cut interest rates. In a statement, analysts at Goldman Sachs noted that the Federal Reserve may decide to cut rates by 0.25%.
BTC/USD Technical Analysis
The daily chart shows that the BTC/USD pair has surged in the past few months, moving from a low of 74,440 in April to a record high of 123,192 in July.
It has now moved close to a correction as it dropped by over 7.7% from its all-time high. On the positive side, the pair remains above the ascending trendline, which coincides with the lowest swings since April this year.
Bitcoin price moved above the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a sign that bulls are in control. Also, it has remained above the key support at 112,000, the highest point on May 22nd.
Therefore, the most likely scenario is where it bounces back in the next few days. If this happens, the next point to watch will be at 120,000. On the other hand, a move below the support at 111,000 will invalidate the bullish view and point to more downside.
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Crispus Nyaga is a financial analyst, coach, and trader with more than 8 years in the industry. He has worked for leading companies like ATFX, easyMarkets, and OctaFx. Further, he has published widely in platforms like SeekingAlpha, Investing Cube, Capital.com, and Invezz. In his free time, he likes watching golf and spending time with his wife and child.