EPM25 – Monday Trading Plan Update
Based on the May 17 end-of-week chart with supply and demand projection, Volume Profile & VWAP
1. Key Levels to Watch
Resistance Zone 5,969–5,977, 50% Fib of today’s range just under VAH
Major Resistance 6,000 Round number, May 14–15 swing high
Short-term Pivot 5,960 Yesterday’s breakout/remedy level
Immediate Support 5,932 38.2% Fib of today’s mini-swing
Secondary Support 5,917 50% Fib of today’s swing
POC / VWAP Mid-Line (cyan) ~5,904 Volume-Weighted control point
Lower Support 5,870 Rising channel base & Yesterday’s low
VAL (pink) ~5,850 Value-Area-Low on Volume Profile
2. Market Context & Bias
- Uptrend Intact: Despite the pullback from 5,969–5,977, price has held above both the VWAP mid-line and the channel’s mid-pitch.
- Volume Profile: POC sits at ~5,904. Holding above reinforces the bullish order flow; a drop below undermines it.
- End-of-Week Pullback: Failure to sustain above 5,969 suggests profit-taking into the close, setting up a Monday test of POC/VWAP.
3. Bullish Scenario (Longs)
- Reclaim & Hold 5,960:
- Entry: On a clean push back above 5,960 with a 1–2-bar retest.
- Targets: 5,969 → 5,977 → 6,000
- Stop: Below 5,940 (just under 38.2% Fib at 5,932)
- POC Bounce:
- Entry: Bounce off 5,904 (POC/VWAP mid-line) on increased volume.
- Targets: 5,932 → 5,969
- Stop: 5,890 (beneath the rising VWAP band)
4. Bearish Scenario (Shorts)
- Failure at 5,969–5,977:
- Entry: Rejection in that zone, fading back below 5,960.
- Targets: 5,932 → 5,904
- Stop: Above 5,980
- Break Below POC (5,904):
- Entry: Close below VWAP/POC on a 5-min close.
- Targets: 5,870 → 5,850 (VAL) → 5,814
- Stop: Above 5,920 (just above the POC)
US mid session May 17
US session end of trades may 17
5. Risk Management & Notes
- Position Sizing: Keep risk ≤ 1% of account on any single trade.
- Volume Confirmation: Favour entries when volume spikes at your level.
- Channel Context: If price returns to the lower channel rail (5,870) and holds, look for reversal longs into Tuesday.
- Overnight Risk: Be aware of any geopolitical headlines after hours that could gap the Sunday/ Monday open.