Potential Signal:
- I will be buying silver if we can break above the $34 level.
- I would have a stop loss at $32.75, and be aiming for the $35 level where I would move the position to break even, hoping for a fresh, new high.
The silver market has been very ugly during the trading session on Thursday in the early hours, but we have seen buyers come back into this market and lift yet again. At this point, it looks like the $32 level is trying to do everything it can to establish itself as a major support level. The $33 level of course has been important multiple times as well, so keep that in mind. If we can break above that 3 $3 level, then we will test the recent highs.
Difficult Conditions
I recognize that the markets are essentially in difficult conditions at the moment, although it’s interesting to see that silver has been relatively stable in the face of so much volatility in other markets. That goes against the grain, because silver tends to be extraordinarily volatile. It’s also interesting to notice that the gold market got hammered earlier in the day, but silver recovered much quicker than gold could.
I suspect that some of what we have seen has been position scoring ahead of the Non-Farm Payroll announcement, which of course is a very volatile time in the market. You have to be very careful holding volatile contracts into that announcement, especially ones that are expensive like silver can be. That being said, I would also point out that we ended up forming a nice hammer, and that does in fact give me a little bit more faith in the overall uptrend. If we can break above the $34 level, then I think you’ve got a real shot at the market reaching toward the $35.25 level, which was the recent swing high.
A breakdown from here could open up a move down to the 200 Day EMA, which is right around the $31.10 level, an area that I think would be a potential buying opportunity. We are very noisy at the moment, but I also recognize that the market is going to continue to have a lot to think about in the form of tariffs, global trade, and of course the US dollar.
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