- During yesterday’s trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair experienced performance volatility as currency investors reacted to global central bank announcements.
- Regarding the pair, the Bank of Japan’s announcement was at the beginning of the trading day, followed by the US Federal Reserve’s announcement at the end of the trading day.
- This explains the USD/JPY pair’s upward rebound towards the 150.15 resistance and then the quick return downwards to the 148.60 support level before stabilizing around the 148.52 level at the beginning of Thursday’s trading session.
Yen Price Falls Due to Bank of Japan’s Hesitation
According to Forex market trading, the Japanese yen declined following the Bank of Japan’s recent monetary policy decision. The bank kept its key interest rate at 0.50% but made no commitment to the possibility of another rate hike, suggesting its guidance has passed its “peak hawkishness.” For the yen to revitalize its 2025 outperformance, financial markets may have been hoping the bank would encourage market expectations of a 25-basis point rate hike. Instead, the next rate hike is set for September, following the midweek monetary policy update, which saw the Monetary Policy Committee unanimously vote to keep Japanese interest rates unchanged.
According to currency prices and reliable trading platforms, the limited scope for further upward revisions to the Bank of Japan’s interest rate forecasts reduces the yen’s chances of rallying. The GBP/JPY exchange rate fluctuated in a wide range around 194.27 following the decision, but has since risen slightly, continuing the upward trend that began in late February. The USD/JPY exchange rate also rose to 149.86, its highest level since the beginning of the month.
In general, the decision to keep Japanese interest rates unchanged was unanimous, and the guidance confirmed the possibility of raising them again if economic activity forecasts warrant such action. The bank added in its policy statement: “Significant uncertainties remain regarding the Japanese economic activity and prices, including the developments of the trade situation.” Market prices indicate that the bank’s terminal interest rate is between 1.00% and 1.25% over the next two years. A full 25-basis-point interest rate hike is expected in September. Like all global central banks, the Bank of Japan is cautiously monitoring US tariff policy, which is a major source of uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Governor Ueda will feel that this is not the right time to announce any major commitments given this uncertainty.
Trading Tips:
Keep in mind that the 150.00 psychological resistance is the most important for the return of bulls’ control over the USD/JPY trend, and the buying strategy remains the best.
The US Federal Reserve maintains interest rates.
According to yesterday’s announcement, the US Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged and indicated that it still expects two US interest rate cuts this year, even as inflation continues to rise sharply. The US central bank now also expects the US economy to grow at a slower pace this year and next compared to three months ago, according to a set of quarterly economic forecasts. US growth is expected to slow to just 1.7% in 2025, down from 2.8% last year, and 1.8% in 2026. Policymakers also expect inflation to rise slightly, reaching 2.7% by the end of 2025 from its current level of 2.5%. Both are above the US central bank’s target of 2%.
Although the US Federal Reserve maintained its forecast for two rate cuts, economists pointed to subtle indications that the US central bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged for some time. This is likely to keep borrowing costs on mortgages, auto loans, and credit cards unchanged in the coming months.
For their part, eight of the nineteen Fed officials confirmed that they expect only one rate cut or zero this year, up from just four in December.
USD/JPY Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
According to daily chart trading, the USD/JPY currency pair is still at the beginning of an upward reversal. Technically, the stability above the 150.00 psychological resistance will continue to motivate bulls for further progress. At the same time, the 147.70 support level will remain a real threat to the upward reversal. We still prefer buying the USD/JPY at every dip, but without risk and distributing the trading amount over several trades from lower levels.
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