- The light sweet crude oil market found itself to be a little bit negative during the trading session on Monday.
- But we are in a situation where oil is trying to figure out what to do with the longer term move.
- After all, it’s summertime and that is typically very bullish for oil. And that does provide a little bit of support.
Keep in mind that the $65 level underneath is a large round psychologically significant figure that also had previously been significant resistance. So, there is a certain amount of market memory in this neighborhood. I have to ask the question as to whether or not we can break down. And it looks to me like we are starting to see a little bit of hesitation from the sellers. And therefore, I think oil probably stays within the range that it’s been in over the last couple of weeks.
Summer Trading?
It’s very boring and very difficult trading to watch, but this is a scenario that can often repeat itself every summer. So, I will put a summer range in this consolidation area, and we’ll see if we break out of it. If we can break above the $70 level I think you’ve got a situation where the market could go much higher, but we need a reason. And right now, we just don’t have it. I think the market is essentially stuck between $65 at the bottom and $70 at the top, which is typical for oil. tends to stay in well-defined ranges, barring some type of external factor like the recent one between Israel and Iran the conflict really getting the markets moving. But once you’re not seeing that, $5 ranges, sometimes $10 ranges are pretty much the norm here.
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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.