Dogecoin’s (DOGE) price is teetering on the edge of a significant downturn, with technical analysis and market sentiment suggesting a potential drop to $0.095.
Dogecoin faces a grim outlook after Elon Musk’s recent statement that the US government has “no plans” to use Dogecoin, a remark that has already shaved 5% off its value in the last 24 hours. This downturn has pushed the altcoin’s price from $0.204 on March 30, dropping as much as 7.36% to an intra-day low of $0.160 on March 31.
While Musk’s influence has long been a double-edged sword for DOGE, this admission—combined with technical weaknesses and shifting market dynamics—could precipitate a deeper decline.
Here’s why Dogecoin faces such a precarious future.
Elon Musk’s Denial: A Blow to Dogecoin’s Speculative Hype
Elon Musk, head of the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E.), made it clear during a March 30 town hall in Green Bay, Wisconsin, that the US government has no intention of integrating Dogecoin into its operations.
Musk distanced the federal department, D.O.G.E., from the Dogecoin cryptocurrency, saying “There are no plans for the government to use Dogecoin or anything as far as I know.”
“They happen to be similar names, but really, we’re literally just trying to make the government 15% more efficient.”
This statement directly undercut a speculative narrative that had buoyed DOGE’s price in recent months: the hope that Musk’s role in the Trump administration might lead to some form of official recognition or use.
According to Musk, the department was initially supposed to be called the “Government Efficiency Commission, but that’s a super boring name,” he said.
“Then the internet said it needs to be the Department of Government Efficiency. I was like, ‘The internet is right.’”
Yet despite this, in February, D.O.G.E.’s official website briefly displayed Dogecoin’s Shiba Inu logo, fueling rumors of a crypto tie-in and sending the coin up 14% to a $58 billion market cap.
Musk’s previous endorsements—like Tesla accepting DOGE or his tweets calling it “the people’s crypto”—have fueled rallies, but this explicit rejection has left investors reeling.
Responses from market participants reflect a mix of disappointment and panic selling, with the initial 5% drop signaling a loss of confidence.
If this sentiment persists, DOGE could slide lower, especially as the Musk-driven hype that once propped it up wanes.
Technical Weakness: A Bearish Pattern Emerges
Beyond Musk’s remarks, Dogecoin’s technical chart paints a troubling picture. Data from CoinMarketCap and TradingView shows that DOGE recently broke below a key support zone near $0.18-$0.20, a level it has held since late February.
This breach, coinciding with Musk’s statement, has triggered a descending parallel triangle pattern in the daily timeframe, often a precursor to continued declines.
Historical data supports this: in June 2024, a similar breakdown led to a 40%+ drop over weeks.
DOGE/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView
With trading volume thinning and the relative strength index (RSI) dipping into negative territory, the lack of buying pressure could accelerate a fall to $0.095, a support level tested during the 2022 bear market. Such a move would represent a 42% downtick from the current price.
Musk’s remarks have effectively removed a psychological buffer, leaving DOGE vulnerable to technical selling.
Broader Market Pressure and Memecoin Fatigue
The broader cryptocurrency market isn’t helping Dogecoin’s case either. Bitcoin’s struggle to reclaim $85,000 and a cooling altcoin season have shifted capital away from speculative assets like DOGE. Memecoins, reliant on community hype rather than utility, tend to suffer disproportionately in such climates—with most of them trading close to 90% below their all-time highs. Dogecoin’s 2021 peak of $0.73 feels like a distant memory.
Additionally, investor fatigue may be setting in after years of Musk-related volatility, with some X users suggesting a pivot to “more serious” projects like Cardano or Solana. Without a fresh narrative or institutional backing, DOGE risks being left behind, amplifying the potential for a more accelerated drop as profit-taking and apathy take hold.
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