European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde stuck to a strictly neutral tone in her EU Parliament speech yesterday, ING’s FX analyst Francesco Pesole notes.
Next major support is the 200-DMA at 1.0725
“It’s admittedly hard to ask for anything different than rigorous data dependency at a time where uncertainty on the tariff impact is paired with uncertainty about fiscal stimulus implications. In other words, don’t expect any ECB guidance before data has already set the direction for the euro.”
“For the time being, the unwinding of the EUR/USD rally is matching our call, even if perhaps slightly earlier than we would have thought. Again, noise risk is elevated, but our preference in terms of multi-week directions is still down for the pair. A 2-year swap rate differential around the current -150bp would still be consistent with EUR/USD at 1.07.”
“We also have a light calendar today in the eurozone and no ECB speakers. The next major support for EUR/USD is probably the 1.0725 200-day moving average, which is now the key benchmark for a return to a bullish mood on the greenback.”