- The Dow Jones spun a tight circle near 42,300 on Tuesday.
- Markets largely failed to react to US CPI inflation, which eased slightly in April.
- Despite a general easing in the weighted index, key goods continue to rise, and tariff impacts loom ahead.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) trimmed momentum on Tuesday, easing back slightly around 200 points and getting hung up on the 42,200 region. Steadying bids come off the heels of a stellar start to the trading week that saw the DJIA climb over a thousand points on Monday, but a firm bullish extension in tech stocks that bolstered other equity indexes higher saw the Dow Jones left in the dust on Tuesday.
United States (US) Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation overall eased in April, with headline CPI inflation rising 0.2% MoM versus the expected 0.3% increase from March’s -0.1% print. Annualized CPI also came in below expectations, rising 2.3% YoY versus the expected hold of 2.4%. Despite the lowest pace of annualized CPI inflation growth in three years, economists and markets are now bracing for tariff impacts to begin wiping out progress on walking back inflation beginning in May. According to reporting by CNBC, the chief of economist from the Moody’s Ratings agency summarized April’s report by saying:
“It felt like we could just about declare victory on putting inflation back in the bottle, and it’s back out again. Soak this report in, it’ll be a while before we get another good one.”
Despite a general easing in key weighted components, such as gasoline, apparel, used cars, and airplane tickets, annualized costs of often-purchased goods continue to soar well above recorded prices a year ago. Egg prices, always a hot topic around the inflation water cooler, remain nearly 50% higher than they were at the same time last year. Many key core consumer goods also chalked in around 10% YoY price increases, including coffee (instant, roasted, and raw), ground beef and beef roasts, gas utility prices, college textbooks, admission to sporting events, and video rentals, including subscription services. Over a similar period, average US wages have risen around a dollar an hour, or a 4% increase.
US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation figures on Thursday will follow up this week’s CPI inflation print, alongside US Retail Sales data from April. The forward-looking University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for May will also be released on Friday, and give investors a peek under the hood of how US consumers feel about the state of the economy. Median market forecasts are expecting a much-needed uptick in the advance sentiment indicator.
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Dow Jones price forecast
The Dow Jones has halted its early-week surge, pumping the brakes and pausing near 42,300. The major equity index is up over 1.5% on the week, and has reclaimed about 15.5% from early April’s plunge into the 36,600 region. A fresh break to the north side of the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) near 41,500 has put the Dow Jones back on the bullish side, and bidders will be looking to extend momentum to push price action back toward record highs above 45,000.
Dow Jones daily chart
Economic Indicator
Consumer Price Index (YoY)
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as The Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The YoY reading compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the same month a year earlier.The CPI is a key indicator to measure inflation and changes in purchasing trends. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
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