The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 bps at its 17 April meeting. This is the seventh time since Jun 2025 that the central bank has lowered rates. Accordingly, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be reduced to 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65% respectively, with effect from 23 April, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Peter Chia note.
Tariffs to impact region’s growth and prices
“The European Central Bank (ECB), on Thursday (17 April), lowered interest rates for the seventh time since Jun 2024. At 25 bps lower, the interest rates on the deposit facility, the main refinancing operations and the marginal lending facility will be at 2.25%, 2.40% and 2.65% respectively.”
“Tariff developments in recent weeks have been the focus. It was thus not surprising that the ECB flagged ‘exceptional uncertainty’ amid the current political backdrop. The hit for the European economy will depend on the actual tariff rate the US settles on and the EU’s response.”
“Assuming impact on economic growth coming from weaker US demand for European exports, we now forecast Eurozone GDP growth of 0.5% in 2025 and 1.0% in 2026, down from 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively. Our inflation forecasts now stand at 2.0% in 2025 and 1.7% in 2026, down from 2.2% and 1.9%, respectively. We now expect three more 25 bps interest rate reductions by the ECB this year, taking the deposit rate to 1.50%.”