- The euro initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Monday but then fell against the Japanese yen.
- The Japanese yen has been very strong for some time, and the euro has been testing the upside.
- I think you’ve got a situation where you are basically stuck in a range, which makes this a very interesting place to be if you are in fact a range bound trader, as you can take advantage of a fairly well-defined short-term range.
That short-term range is basically supported by the ¥161.50 level, as well as resisted near the ¥164 level. In other words, we are essentially in the middle of this range, so it does suggest that we are going to be somewhat neutral at this moment, and it’s probably worth noting that the 200 Day EMA sits just below current trading. Underneath there, we also have the 50 Day EMA, which in and of itself will attract a lot of attention.
Risk Appetite
Remember that the Japanese yen is considered to be a safety currency, so we need risk appetite to pick up in order to see the euro gain against it. That being said, if we can break above the ¥165 level, then the euro can truly take off against the Japanese yen. All things being equal, that would take a significant amount of momentum, as well as effort. On a pullback to the 50 Day EMA, then I would be looking for some type of reversal. If we were to break down below the ¥160 level, then it’s likely that we could go down to the ¥158 level, possibly the ¥155 level.
Ultimately, a lot of this will probably come down to the risk appetite of the markets, and the fact that the tariff situation continues to be very difficult for traders to hang onto. The market has been very noisy, and I think that will continue to be the case. Until proven wrong, I am more likely than not going to continue to look at this as a market that remains sideways for the time being, and therefore a range bound system is to be employed.
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