EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Moving within a counter-bearish channel.
- Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1630 – 1.1580 – 1.1490.
- Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1700 – 1.1770 – 1.1830.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1580 with a target of 1.1780 and a stop loss of 1.1490.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1750 with a target of 1.1520 and a stop loss of 1.1830.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Ahead of anticipated new statements from US Central Bank Governor Jerome Powell today, Tuesday, July 22, 2025, the EUR/USD currency pair attempted to move above the 1.1700 resistance, recovering from its recent losses that pushed it towards the 1.1556 support level by the end of last week’s trading. The Euro’s stability comes as investors await the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy decision and closely monitor trade developments between the EU and the United States.
On the monetary policy front, the European Central Bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged next Thursday after eight consecutive cuts, with policymakers adopting a wait-and-see approach amid uncertainty about the impact of higher-than-expected US tariffs and the strong Euro on European growth and inflation. Meanwhile, EU envoys are preparing to meet this week to discuss emergency measures in case no agreement is reached with US President Donald Trump, whose stance on tariffs appears to have hardened ahead of the August 1st deadline.
The technical forecasts for EUR/USD still indicate that the currency pair is moving within a counter-bearish channel, supported by its move below the 1.1600 support level. With the gains at the start of the week, the 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) has returned to around a reading of 56, moving away from the midline, which gives bulls renewed momentum to push higher. As a result, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are returning to neutrality. According to the daily timeframe chart performance, the 1.1770 and 1.1830 resistance levels will remain crucial to avoid the recent collapse, and at the same time, expectations for the psychological 1.2000 resistance are re-emerging.
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On the downside, over the same timeframe, trading the Euro below $1.16 will remain important for a bearish reversal and give bears enough momentum to move towards stronger losses. Euro trading today is not anticipating significant economic releases from the Eurozone, and the reaction to US Central Bank Governor Jerome Powell’s statements will be most important for the currency pair.
Trading Tips:
We advise to sell EUR/USD, but without excessive risk, and to monitor factors influencing the currency market.
Key Factors Affecting EUR/USD Price in the Coming Days:
According to observations by forex trading experts, Euro trading is experiencing a temporary upward trend, but it remains stable against the US dollar. Certainly, not many events are expected this week, as forex markets appear relatively quiet for now. While there are no major events on the US calendar, the EU and Japan will have to approve or reject new trade agreements with the United States within the next ten days, with President Donald Trump’s August 1st deadline approaching. Headlines regarding this issue could introduce some short-term volatility into the market.
Trading fundamentals suggest that trade agreements will benefit the US dollar, as they will reduce the likelihood of negative domestic economic shocks stemming from import tariffs. Reports indicate that the United States also wishes to apply comprehensive tariffs on EU goods exceeding 10% with few exceptions.
The main event this week is the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain at their current levels, signifying an end to its rate-cutting cycle. Last June, President Lagarde stated that the ECB is well-positioned to handle the current uncertain environment, emphasizing that further cuts are not guaranteed. Experts expect the ECB to keep the deposit facility rate at 2.0% at its meeting scheduled for July 24th, and we do not anticipate any further rate cuts after that. However, the risk of this decision stems from the possibility of an escalation in the trade dispute between the EU and the US, and a further appreciation of the Euro against the dollar.
Overall, if the ECB concludes its interest rate cuts, the Euro will receive good support from a future interest rate differential perspective. However, most market participants believe it will cut interest rates again in September for the final time. Even if it does, the broader picture is that the United States will likely see larger interest rate cuts in the coming months compared to the Eurozone, which supports the Euro against the dollar.
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