EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Bullish.
- Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1370 – 1.1300 – 1.1240.
- Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1440 – 1.1520 – 1.1600.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1280 with a target of 1.1420 and a stop-loss at 1.1190.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1440 with a target of 1.1200 and a stop-loss at 1.1530.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Ahead of a batch of important and influential US economic releases, bulls attempted to push the EUR/USD price upwards with gains to the resistance level of 1.1425, which reinforces expectations for a move towards the 1.1500 resistance again. Before the rebound, we observed stability in the US dollar price in global markets, but sentiment remains cautious. Forex market experts believe that the worst-case scenario for EUR/USD is likely the support level of 1.1250, and in the event of surprising US data, the 1.1500 resistance is the risk, especially if any of the US jobs data this week indicates that uncertainty about tariffs has already led to layoffs.
Regarding the long-term outlook for the EUR/USD price, Goldman Sachs has set a 12-month target rate of 1.20.
Trading Tips:
Traders are advised that easing geopolitical and global trade tensions will favor an upward rebound for the EUR/USD pair. Therefore, monitor closely the factors affecting exchange rates to seize the best trading opportunities.
EUR/USD Trading Scenarios:
EUR/USD bullish scenario: will occur technically with a move towards the 1.1500 resistance, which in turn will push technical indicators – the 14-day RSI and the MACD – towards overbought barriers. This resistance will stimulate technical buying trades to move towards peaks that reinforce the bullish outlook for the EUR/USD pair in the coming days. This could be fueled by negative US jobs figures this week, along with a weaker-than-expected US inflation reading favoured by the US Federal Reserve. Alongside these important economic data, trade talks will remain under very close scrutiny.
EUR/USD bearish scenario: Based on the performance on the daily chart, a break of the EUR/USD support level of 1.1260 will remain a threat to the upside. Stability below this level will encourage bears to move towards the next important support levels, 1.1145 and 1.1000, respectively, which will confirm a shift in the general trend to a downside. With the second support, the RSI will move towards the midline, returning the technical performance to neutral.
Today’s EUR/USD trading will be affected by the announcement of the German GFK Consumer Confidence reading at 9:00 AM Cairo time, and the Spanish Growth and Inflation reading at 10:00 AM Cairo time. Most importantly, the US JOLTS Job Openings and US Consumer Confidence readings will be announced at 5:00 PM Cairo time. These are all preliminary indicators of the US jobs figures, the official figures of which will be announced at the end of the week.
US trade wars continue to affect the currency market, according to forex trading. Caution is likely to prevail in the short term, especially if the US administration’s rhetoric does not match reality. Late Friday, US President Trump claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping had called, but Beijing denied this, insisting there were no trade negotiations.
According to Bank of America, the US dollar could fall more rapidly if the trade negotiations fail. A de-escalation in the trade war and a refocus on pro-growth policies could help the US dollar recover, but we don’t expect the risk premium to completely disappear anytime soon. The bank added that US trade policies and the uncertainty surrounding them are hurting Europe, but are worse for the US. We continue to believe the risks are tilted toward further euro strength as a result of potential European reforms and EU pressure to strike trade deals elsewhere, assuming no trade escalation occurs between the EU and the US.
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