- The Euro has gone back and forth during the trading session as the European Central Bank has decided to hold rates.
- Furthermore, there’s been some statements about people who could assume that the ECB is now on hold.
- So, I think that takes some wind out of the sales of the Euro, but at the same time, the U.S. dollar has struggled mightily.
And in this environment, you have to be very cognizant of that. This is a marketplace that given enough time, I do think we have a potential bigger move, but we need some type of reason to get moving the 1.18 level above is significant resistance. But if we break above there, then I think it opens up the door to the 1.20 level. On a pullback from here, we could see the 1.16 level offer support right along with the 1.15 level in the 50 day EMA that is currently stuck between those two areas. All of that offers the floor.
On a Break Lower
If we break down below the 1.15 level, then it’s likely that we will see the euro really drop perhaps down to the 200 day EMA, which is sitting right around the 1.12 level. All things being equal, I think this is a pair that you need to watch very closely, mainly due to the fact that we look at this as basically a proxy for the U.S. dollar index and if the euro rises generally that’s a bad sign for the US dollar against other currencies.
There are outliers and there are moves that are specific to Europe but obviously as it’s the largest component of the US dollar index pressing almost half at this point it does make a lot of sense that you pay attention to this even if you don’t trade in the euro because it can give you an idea as to where the dollar might move against other currencies. As things stand right now, I can’t tell if we’re in the topping pattern yet, but we are starting to at least suggest that we are going to struggle.
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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.