- After the jobs number on Friday, we have seen the euro climb again against the US dollar.
- Ultimately, this is a market that is focusing squarely on interest rates in the European Union, most specifically Germany. Germany has promised to flood the markets with massive amounts of duration, so German Bunds have been crushed, driving rates much higher.
- By driving those rates higher, you see a strengthening euro as a result.
Technical Analysis
This is a pair that is undoubtedly overbought. Furthermore, we have seen the pair struggle with momentum over the last couple of days, despite the fact that Friday was quite a bit more bullish than Thursday. We are starting to see signs of exhaustion, and I think that something that you might want to keep in the back of your mind. While I don’t necessarily think that the trend is suddenly going to value the dollar over the euro for the longer term, I do think that a pullback makes quite a bit of sense.
The 1.08 level below could offer a bit of support, but if we were to break down below there, then we could go looking to the 200 Day EMA after that. Underneath the 200 Day EMA, we then have the 1.06 level, which is an area that has been important multiple times. Anything below there would be catastrophic for the Euro, and we would probably see the US dollar strengthening against almost everything at the same time. I don’t necessarily think that happens, unless we get some type of massive “risk off move” around the world, which of course is a real possibility, or all, we have a lot of geopolitical concerns at the moment, not the least of which would be Terra forth.
With all of this being said, I suspect that most likely of outcomes is that we get a little bit of a pullback and then see buyers looking to take advantage of the interest rate situation happening in Germany, while also shunning the lower interesting rates in the United States of America.
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