After several days of US Dollar strength, bulls are finally managing to make some consistent gains over the past several hours.
My previous EUR/USD signal on 9th July was not triggered.
Today’s EUR/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades may only be entered prior to 5pm London time today.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1630, $1.1667, or $1.1727.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.1586, $1.1574, or $1.1569.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 20 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 20 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
EUR/USD Analysis
In my previous EUR/USD analysis one week ago, I wrote that the EUR/USD currency pair was showing signs of changing from bearish to bullish following the first sign of a higher low having printed at $1.1700. However, I also saw $1.1731 as a potentially pivotal point.
This was a good call for the day, as the high of the London session was just a few pips below $1.1731, so there was a potential for a short scalp entering near that resistance level. Also, the previous low held, and the price later popped up above $1.1731, so I was right about the higher low too.
Despite the bullishness the next day, the price pretty soon got back below $1.1731 and resumed its medium-term bearish trend, due mostly to strength in the US Dollar continuing as the Federal Reserve persists in making clear it is in no hurry to cut interest rates. This is sending the greenback higher which makes the price here decline, continuing a pattern of lower lows and lower highs.
We saw a sharp drop yesterday but have seen a minor recovery in recent hours from the $1.1600 area.
A daily close below $1.1500 will be a significant event and will probably shake out trend traders still hanging onto long positions here.
Although there are good reasons to be bearish, the cluster of support levels starting at $1.1586 looks likely to provide solid support, so I think a long trade from a bullish bounce at $1.1586 could be a great opportunity to buy the bullish trend on a dip.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the Euro. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of PPI data at 1:30pm London time.
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