The EUR/USD appears ready to enter the month of April near the 1.08000 level, this after experiencing price velocity upwards in early March, then followed by choppy range trading as sentiment produced caution.
The EUR/USD is trading near the 1.08100 ratio as of this writing. The ability of the EUR/USD to potentially start the month of April above the 1.08000 should be looked at as a solid accomplishment by those who were looking for the currency pair to show bullish behavior during March. The EUR/USD started the month within sight of the 1.04000 vicinity. Since reaching a high of nearly 1.09600 on the 18th of March the EUR/USD has hit definite headwinds however.
Broad market action globally is showing a sizeable amount of caution heading into this week, as the White House tariff deadline approaches on the 2nd of April. Not only has Forex been affected, but equity indices worldwide have seen volatility. President Trump has to the surprise of many, turned a lot of his rhetoric towards the European Union which has likely some investors off guard.
EUR/USD Rise in Value Followed by a Cautious Path
The rise in value of the EUR/USD in March early on, which was followed by a rather choppy cautious range should not surprise day traders. As April gets ready to start outlooks remain unclear, but apparent hurdles and the obvious hope for an optimistic outcome may be keeping the EUR/USD within important psychological levels that continue to sustain value above the 1.08000 ratio while refusing to climb.
Early trading this week should be expected to be mixed as noise from Washington D.C increases. The prospect of the Trump White House going ahead with tariffs on the European auto industry carries dangers for the E.U and the EUR/USD. Financial institutions will keep their attention focused on rhetoric, but have likely grown accustomed to loud threats and may be waiting for actual actions. Day traders flirting with the idea of pursuing the EUR/USD early this week are urged to remain conservative.
EUR/USD Economic Data Drowned Out by Rhetoric
Traders waiting for economic data to again being the focal point for financial institutions as they trade the EUR/USD should remain patient. Until a clearer picture is delivered regarding tariffs and perhaps shadows regarding the Ukraine / Russian war and U.S interactions with the two nations, the EUR/USD may be hampered by concerns that continue to create headwinds.
- The ability of the EUR/USD to develop solid price velocity upwards occurred in the first week of March.
- The EUR/USD was trading near 1.09000 on the 7th of March, the currency pair since then has actually been tight and lower.
- The belief that the 1.08000 to 1.08600 range will remain well practiced until additional clarity is delivered may be justified.
- If President Trump speaks negatively about the European Union it may create some selling, but the 1.0700 mark may prove strong as support if tested.
EUR/USD Outlook for April 2025:
Speculative price range for EUR/USD is 1.07300 to 1.09700
April will certainly prove interesting for the EUR/USD and the broad Forex market. Financial institutions certainly showed that they are capable of producing USD centric weakness and focusing on risk appetite in early March. However, the broad markets remain near precarious support levels in U.S equity indices, and the chance that U.S equities go lower and spark risk adverse sentiment should be kept in mind, particularly early this week as tariff questions linger.
U.S jobs numbers will be published this week, but data will remain a secondary factor in the EUR/USD for the moment. Interest rates from central banks will also be discussed in April, but again financial institutions want to know if clarity and an agreement can be delivered regarding trade negotiations. Until a positive result is delivered the EUR/USD above 1.09000 may be considered overbought territory for the currency pair. The higher surge achieved in early March is unlikely to be seen again in April unless there is a large shift in rhetoric from the U.S White House.
Ready to trade our monthly forecast? We’ve made a list of the best European brokers to trade with worth using.