- EUR/USD soars above 1.1100 as the US Dollar has been hit hard by Trump’s reciprocal tariffs announcement.
- US President Trump has announced 20% reciprocal levies on the Eurozone.
- EC von der Leyen vows to retaliate if negotiations with Washington fail.
EUR/USD climbs to its highest level since October around 1.1145 in Thursday’s European session and gains more than 2% on the day. The major currency pair strengthens as the US Dollar (USD) takes the bullet for long-term transition in the United States (US) economy. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which gauges the Greenback’s value against six major currencies, nosedives to near 101.30, the lowest level seen in six months.
On Wednesday, US Council of Economic Advisers Chair Stephen Miran agreed that tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump could lead to short-term bumps in the economy but will be favorable for long-term prospects. His comments came after Trump unveiled planned reciprocal tariffs. Trump announced a 10% baseline duty on all imports to the US and additional specific levies on most of its trading allies. Some leaders from targeted nations have threatened to retaliate with countermeasures.
Market participants expect Trump’s tariffs will lead to a global economic slowdown, including in the US. Experts believe that new import duties are higher than expected and sufficient to send the US economy into a recession. Such a scenario paves the way for stagflation, assuming that higher levies will dampen efforts made by the Federal Reserve (Fed) to contain sticky inflationary pressures. This will complicate the Fed’s job of maintaining inflation near the 2% target with full employment.
Going forward, investors will focus on the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for March, which will be released on Friday. The official employment data will influence market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy outlook. On Wednesday, the ADP Employment Change data showed that the private sector added 155K fresh workers in March, significantly higher than the expectations of 105K and the former release of 84K.
In Thursday’s session, investors will pay close attention to the S&P Global and the ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March, which will be published during North American trading hours. The S&P Global Services PMI is estimated to align with the preliminary reading of 54.3. The ISM Services PMI is expected to come in lower at 53.0 from February’s reading of 53.5, suggesting that activities in the services sector grew moderately.
Daily digest market movers: EUR/USD rallies despite growing concerns over Eurozone economic outlook
Euro PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies today. Euro was the strongest against the US Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | -2.01% | -0.94% | -1.90% | -0.78% | -0.81% | -1.21% | -2.29% | |
| EUR | 2.01% | 0.82% | 0.08% | 1.28% | 1.23% | 0.82% | -0.28% | |
| GBP | 0.94% | -0.82% | -0.73% | 0.45% | 0.43% | 0.01% | -1.12% | |
| JPY | 1.90% | -0.08% | 0.73% | 1.16% | 1.16% | 0.60% | -0.39% | |
| CAD | 0.78% | -1.28% | -0.45% | -1.16% | 0.06% | -0.44% | -1.56% | |
| AUD | 0.81% | -1.23% | -0.43% | -1.16% | -0.06% | -0.41% | -1.51% | |
| NZD | 1.21% | -0.82% | -0.01% | -0.60% | 0.44% | 0.41% | -1.14% | |
| CHF | 2.29% | 0.28% | 1.12% | 0.39% | 1.56% | 1.51% | 1.14% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
Technical Analysis: EUR/USD jumps to near 1.1150
EUR/USD rallies to near 1.1150 on Thursday after a decisive breakout above the prior resistance of 1.0955, trading at levels not seen since early October. The near-term outlook of the major currency pair has turned extremely bullish as the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) resumes its upside journey, trading around 1.0800.
The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) jumps around 70.00 after cooling down to near 60.00, suggesting that the bullish momentum has resumed.
Looking down, the mid-March resistance zone around 1.0955 is the first support to consider, followed by the March 31 high of 1.0850. Conversely, the September 25 high of 1.1214 will be the key barrier for the Euro bulls.