- The EUR/USD sank to a low of nearly 1,07225 on Wednesday of this past week. The fact that the currency pair was able to finish with a flourish higher and go into the weekend near 1,08217 was a good results for bullish traders.
- The EUR/USD was trading near the 1,02125 mark on the 3rd of February. The EUR/USD was trading around 1,08200 on the 7th of November. These dates are mentioned specifically for a reason and speculators need to pay attention.
- The U.S White House will be speaking about tariffs loudly this week, as they aim their policies and negotiations towards nations who are trading partners. The outcome of these negotiations is unknown.
- The EUR/USD traded at lows on the 3rd of February as fear climaxed regarding the potential of tariff dangers being implemented. The 2nd of April is now earmarked to be another day in which the Trump administration will essentially declare who has been naught and nice. The EUR/USD will react the rhetoric and actions from the U.S White House this Wednesday.
It is likely not coincidence that going into this weekend the EUR/USD is traversing values it swam in the aftermath of the U.S elections. The EUR/USD was trading near 1,08200 on the 7th of November, by the 22nd of November and on the 19th of December the currency pair was near 1,03400. Financial institutions were questioning their mid-term outlooks during those lows and have shown the capacity to be a bit more optimistic, but they remain nervous.
The ability of the EUR/USD to climb from lows seen in early February have been based on the assumption things will not get any worse or wilder, that tranquility will prevail and outlooks will be able to be envisioned using fundamental economic considerations once again. The EUR/USD climbing from its low on Thursday and going back above the 1,08200 level into this weekend is a sign financial institutions believe they understand the trading landscape in the EUR/USD a bit better and have a better outlook. However, trading early this week may show nervousness remains.
Trying to predict what will develop in the coming days via the negotiations and tariff rhetoric is dangerous enough. Trying to bet on the EUR/USD in the coming days as financial institutions try to position themselves during the coming storm will lead to volatile conditions.
- Speculators are strong advised to be risk adverse early this week and consider the potential of waiting until late on the 2nd of April to step into Forex, including the EUR/USD.
- Even if things turn out fine regarding tariff negotiations and Trump announces he has been victorious while delivering a result which is claimed as a bona fide agreement, there will still be questions afterwards certainly.
- The 1.08000 level should be watched as a barometer early this week.
Forex has proven nervous for the past handful of months, this as financial institutions seek clarity and position forward cash transactions for their commercial clients based on energetic variables. The amount of rhetoric from the U.S White House has been loud, but many large players in Forex may feel as if they know what to expect. However, early this week and on Wednesday day traders should not be surprised by sudden storms.
The outcome of the tariff negotiations will certainly cast a shadow on the European Union. Trump has begun speaking about severe tariffs on imported cars in the U.S which would hurt European automakers. Retaliatory dialogue has been heard from officials from Europe, but it is questionable if the U.S White House will react to the banter. The EUR/USD looks fine from a distance because the 1.08000 may be a mark many financial institutions feel comfortable, but early trading this week is likely to be choppy and by Wednesday conditions will likely grow more intense. U.S jobs numbers will be published this coming Friday, but they will take a back seat to the tariff developments.
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