Potential signal:
- I am buying the CAD/JPY pair if we can break above the ¥108.80 level, with a stop loss at the 1.0750 level, and a target of ¥109.90.
The Canadian dollar has dropped significantly against the Japanese yen in early trading during the session on Wednesday, as we have the tank of Canada interest rate decision coming out, and being essentially nothing of note. At this point, now we are watching the Bank of Japan, due to the fact that they have an interest rate decision early on Thursday, and that of course will move the Japanese yen overall. Ultimately, this is a market that is sitting in the middle of the larger consolidation range that I am paying close attention to.
Two Major Levels
I will be looking at two distinct levels in this pair for a longer-term signal, but there are a lot of different things going on at the same time. The ¥105 level for me is a major support level, while the ¥110 level as a major resistance barrier. We are currently right in the middle of that, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all to go sideways for a while. That being said, market participants also will be paying close attention to the fact that the 50 Day EMA is trying to break above the 200 Day EMA, kicking off the so-called “golden cross”, something that a lot of traders look at as being a very bullish longer-term signal.
That being said, I think we have a situation where the move will probably be based on whatever is going on with the Japanese yen, as the Canadian dollar is just simply “meh” at the moment. The Canadian dollar does have its own issues, but at this point in time it’s probably worth watching the Bank of Japan and what they have to say about the problems that we have seen in the Japanese Government Bond markets recently. After all, there have been a couple of days where there have been no bids for Japanese debt, which of course would be a very negative thing. However, I do see a potential set up that could be continuation to the upside.
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Christopher Lewis has been trading Forex and has over 20 years experience in financial markets. Chris has been a regular contributor to Daily Forex since the early days of the site. He writes about Forex for several online publications, including FX Empire, Investing.com, and his own site, aptly named The Trader Guy. Chris favours technical analysis methods to identify his trades and likes to trade equity indices and commodities as well as Forex. He favours a longer-term trading style, and his trades often last for days or weeks.