My previous GBP/USD signal on 2nd April was not triggered, as none of the key support or resistance levels were reached until after the end of the London session.
Today’s GBP/USD Signals
Risk 0.75%.
Trades must be taken prior to 5pm London time today.
Long Trade Ideas
- Go long following a bullish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.2700, $1.2680, or $1.2634.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip below the local swing low.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
Short Trade Ideas
- Go short following a bearish price action reversal on the H1 timeframe immediately upon the next touch of $1.2795 or $1.2853.
- Place the stop loss 1 pip above the local swing high.
- Move the stop loss to break even once the trade is 25 pips in profit.
- Remove 50% of the position as profit when the price reaches 25 pips in profit and leave the remainder of the position to ride.
The best method to identify a classic “price action reversal” is for an hourly candle to close, such as a pin bar, a doji, an outside or even just an engulfing candle with a higher close. You can exploit these levels or zones by watching the price action that occurs at the given levels.
GBP/USD Analysis
I wrote in my previous GBP/USD forecast on Wednesday last week that the mildly bearish consolidation between $1.2870 and the big round number area of $1.3000 was very likely to hold until Trump’s new tariffs were announced.
This was a good and accurate call.
Trump’s tariff announcement has roiled markets, producing some big price movements in Forex, but not really in this currency pair. The UK does not have much of any trade dispute with the USA and manufactures little and will “only” be subject to a 10% tariff.
Having said that, the Pound has been hit to some extent by the current risk-off, nervous market environment, and we have seen the price move down quite steadily in impulsive waves to reach new 1-month low prices.
Earlier today, the price rejected resistance confluent with the round number at $1.2800 and looks to be moving lower towards the nearest support level confluent with the round number at $1.2700.
Day traders will probably be wise to short this move down on short time frames towards $1.2700.
If the support at $1.2700 is reached quite early in the day, there could be a long scalp from there if we see a bullish bounce.
There is nothing of high importance due today regarding the GBP. Concerning the USD, there will be a release of the ADP Non-Farm Employment Change Forecast at 1;15pm London time.
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