Potential signal:
- I would be a buyer of the EUR/USD pair at the 1.0860 level, with a stop loss near the 1.0750 level.
- I would expect a lot of noise above but would be aiming for just underneath the 1.10 level.
The euro initially rallied against the US dollar but then sold off during the day on Monday as we continued to dance around the crucial 1.08 level. This is a pair that I’m watching very closely, because the rates in both the United States and Germany are the main drivers of what’s going on right now. Rates in Germany have been very strong as of late, much stronger and much more bullish from a rate of change perspective than the United States. In other words, this has traders re-pricing the euro in general.
Recently, the pair has formed a pretty significant bullish mood and then turned around to fall pretty quickly. That being said, the 1.08 level is an area that’s been important multiple times in the past, so I think you’ve got a situation where a lot of traders will continue to look at this for some type of guidance. That being said, I think the real “tell for the market” might be the highs of the day on both Friday and Monday.
Resistance Above
At this point in time, I think there is significant resistance above, near the 1.0850 level. If we can break above there, that might be a signal to start buying the euro again, so it’ll be interesting to see how we behave over the next couple of days. Keep in mind that April 2 is the day that Donald Trump is set to announce the next set of tariffs, so that could be a major influence on where we go next as well.
Conversely, if we were to break down below the low of the Thursday session, near the 1.0730 level, that would be extraordinarily negative for this market. At that point in time, it would not surprise me at all to see the euro go looking to the 200 Day EMA, just below the 1.07 level. All things being equal though, this is a market that has seen a very massive bullish move to the upside, and now I think what traders are waiting for is the next bullish catalysts.
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