- Gold price attracts buyers for the second straight day amid a combination of supporting factors.
- Fed rate cut bets drag the USD to a multi-year low and underpin the non-yielding yellow metal.
- The uncertainty over Trump’s policies offsets the positive risk tone and benefits the XAU/USD pair.
Gold price (XAU/USD) extends its steady intraday ascend on Tuesday and climbs to a three-day top, around the $3,332-3,333 area heading into the European session. The growing acceptance that the Federal Reserve (Fed) would resume its rate-cutting cycle in the near future and concerns about the worsening US fiscal situation drag the US Dollar (USD) to its lowest level since February 2022. This, along with the heightened uncertainty over US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies ahead of the July 9 deadline, assists the safe-haven commodity to build on the overnight goodish rebound from a one-month low.
Meanwhile, the spillover effect from the overnight record closing highs in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remains supportive of a positive tone around the Asian equity markets. This might hold back traders from placing aggressive bullish bets around the Gold price ahead of this week’s important US macro releases, starting with the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) later this Tuesday. The focus, however, remains glued to the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday, which will influence the USD price dynamics and provide a fresh impetus to the commodity.
Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold price benefits from weaker USD and trade jitters
- US President Donald Trump expressed frustration over stalled US-Japan trade negotiations and also threatened to raise tariffs on certain countries as his July 9 deadline approaches. Adding to this, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said that Trump would meet with his trade team to set tariff rates for countries if they don’t come to the table to negotiate in good faith.
- Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that countries could be notified that tariff rates are scheduled to rise sharply from a temporary 10% level to rates of 11% to 50% announced on April 2. This, in turn, drives some safe-haven flows during the Asian session on Tuesday and assists the Gold price to build on the overnight goodish recovery move.
- Trump steps up his pressure campaign on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell to lower borrowing costs in a handwritten note on Monday. This comes after the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showed on Friday that consumer spending unexpectedly declined in May and keeps the door open for further monetary policy easing by the central bank.
- The markets are currently pricing in a smaller chance that the next rate reduction by the Fed will come in July and see a roughly 74% probability of a rate cut as soon as September. This, along with concerns about the worsening US fiscal condition, drags the US Dollar to its lowest level since February 2022 on Tuesday and lends additional support to the XAU/USD pair.
- The Senate narrowly approved a procedural vote to open debate on Trump’s comprehensive “One Big Beautiful Bill,” which would add approximately $3.3 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade. This should keep the USD on the defensive ahead of this week’s key US macro releases and support prospects for a further appreciating move for the commodity.
- Traders now look forward to the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for some impetus later during the North American session. The focus, however, will remain glued to the closely-watched US monthly employment details, popularly known as the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday.
Gold price could accelerate the positive move above the $3,324-3,325 immediate barrier
From a technical perspective, any subsequent strength beyond the $3,324-3,325 immediate hurdle could attract some sellers near the $3,350 region. This is followed by resistance near the $3,368-3,370 region, above which the Gold price could accelerate the positive move and aim toward reclaiming the $3,400 mark. A sustained strength beyond the latter would shift the near-term bias in favor of the XAU/USD bulls and pave the way for additional gains.
On the flip side, the $3,300 round figure now seems to protect the immediate downside ahead of the $3,277-3,276 horizontal support and the overnight swing low, around the $3,246-3,245 region. Failure to defend the said support levels could make the Gold price vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards testing the $3,210-$3,200 intermediate support before eventually dropping to the $3,175 area amid slightly negative oscillators on the daily chart.
Fed FAQs
Monetary policy in the US is shaped by the Federal Reserve (Fed). The Fed has two mandates: to achieve price stability and foster full employment. Its primary tool to achieve these goals is by adjusting interest rates.
When prices are rising too quickly and inflation is above the Fed’s 2% target, it raises interest rates, increasing borrowing costs throughout the economy. This results in a stronger US Dollar (USD) as it makes the US a more attractive place for international investors to park their money.
When inflation falls below 2% or the Unemployment Rate is too high, the Fed may lower interest rates to encourage borrowing, which weighs on the Greenback.
The Federal Reserve (Fed) holds eight policy meetings a year, where the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) assesses economic conditions and makes monetary policy decisions.
The FOMC is attended by twelve Fed officials – the seven members of the Board of Governors, the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and four of the remaining eleven regional Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis.
In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.
It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low. It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. QE usually weakens the US Dollar.
Quantitative tightening (QT) is the reverse process of QE, whereby the Federal Reserve stops buying bonds from financial institutions and does not reinvest the principal from the bonds it holds maturing, to purchase new bonds. It is usually positive for the value of the US Dollar.
(This story was corrected on July 01 at 06:33 GMT to say in the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report is scheduled on Thursday, not Friday)