Signals for the Lira Against the US Dollar Today
Risk 0.50%.
Bullish Entry Points:
- Open a buy order at 38.05.
- Set a stop-loss order below 37.85.
- Move the stop-loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the strong resistance levels at 40.50.
Bearish Entry Points:
- Place a sell order for 40.35.
- Set a stop-loss order at or above 41.50.
- Move the stop loss to the entry point and follow the profit with a price movement of 50 pips.
- Close half the contracts at a profit of 70 pips and leave the rest until the support levels at 37.15.
Turkish Lira Analysis:
The USD/TRY exchange rate showed mixed trading within a limited range during the early hours of trading this Thursday morning. The dollar traded at 38.31 lira, down from yesterday’s peak of 38.36 lira. Despite the slight declines that pushed the dollar price from levels around 37.85 approximately a month ago to the current levels, the interventions of the financial authorities in Turkey, especially the central bank, to support the lira’s price over the past weeks are clearly evident.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revealed gloomy expectations for global economic growth, indicating that the global economy is facing severe pressures as a result of the historical tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump, which have led to a state of profound disruption in the international trading system. Despite this negative global outlook, the Fund, in its recently released World Economic Outlook report, expressed notable optimism regarding the Turkish economy, which appears to be temporarily escaping the repercussions of this global crisis. The Fund painted a brighter picture for the Turkish economy.
Recently, Turkey was one of the few countries not included in the negative revisions. According to Turkish media reports, the Fund raised its forecast for Turkey’s GDP growth in 2025 to 2.7% compared to the January estimate of 2.6% and maintained its forecast for 3.2% growth in 2026.
Regarding inflation in Turkey, the report indicated that it is expected to reach 35.9% by the end of 2025, which is significantly higher than the official estimates of the Turkish Central Bank targeting a rate of 24% for the same period, before declining to 22.8% in 2026. Also, the Fund affirmed that Turkey’s current account deficit will remain stable at 1.2% of GDP during 2025 and 2026, despite the ongoing global trade war.
TRYUSD Technical Analysis and Expectations Today:
On the technical front, the USD/TRY pair fluctuated around the 38.30 lira levels, with the pair stabilizing above the 38.25 level, which previously acted as support but has now turned into resistance. Despite the narrow trading range, the overall long-term trend remains bullish, especially with the pair trading above the 50 and 200-day moving averages, respectively.
The Turkish lira price forecasts include the pair recording slight increases, targeting the resistance levels of 38.87, 40.00, and 41.01, respectively.
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