- EUR/INR falls back as Indian Rupee gains ground on RBI’s intervention.
- US-India trade tensions would keep the Indian Rupee on the backfoot.
- Investors await the RBI’s monetary policy, which will be announced on Wednesday.
The EUR/INR pair falls back to near 101.30 on Tuesday after revisiting an all-time high around 101.85 earlier in the day. The pair retreated as the Indian Rupee (INR) gained ground, following the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) intervention into currency markets.
A report from Reuters showed that the RBI likely sold US Dollars via state-run banks before the opening of the Indian market. The RBI’s intervention came at a time when the Indian Rupee is continuously underperforming due to escalating trade tensions between the United States (US) and India, and the consistent outflow of foreign funds from Indian equity markets.
Indian Rupee PRICE Last 7 days
The table below shows the percentage change of Indian Rupee (INR) against listed major currencies last 7 days. Indian Rupee was the weakest against the Japanese Yen.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | INR | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.50% | 0.65% | -0.59% | 0.51% | 1.01% | 1.17% | 0.91% | |
| EUR | -0.50% | 0.14% | -1.11% | 0.00% | 0.53% | 0.75% | 0.43% | |
| GBP | -0.65% | -0.14% | -1.25% | -0.12% | 0.39% | 0.47% | 0.28% | |
| JPY | 0.59% | 1.11% | 1.25% | 1.08% | 1.60% | 1.84% | 1.62% | |
| CAD | -0.51% | -0.00% | 0.12% | -1.08% | 0.44% | 0.72% | 0.41% | |
| AUD | -1.01% | -0.53% | -0.39% | -1.60% | -0.44% | 0.22% | -0.12% | |
| INR | -1.17% | -0.75% | -0.47% | -1.84% | -0.72% | -0.22% | -0.35% | |
| CHF | -0.91% | -0.43% | -0.28% | -1.62% | -0.41% | 0.12% | 0.35% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Indian Rupee from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent INR (base)/USD (quote).
Trade tensions between the US and India escalated after President Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from New Delhi along with an unspecified penalty for buying a significant amount of Oil from Russia.
Meanwhile, New Delhi has clarified that it will continue to import Oil from Russia, being favorable for the national interest.
In July and two trading days of August, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have sold Rs. 53,599.59 crores worth of Indian equities cumulatively.
Going forward, investors will focus on the RBI’s monetary policy, which will be announced on Wednesday. The RBI is expected to leave the Repo Rate steady at 5.5%.
In the Eurozone, investors will focus on the Retail Sales data for June, which is scheduled to be released on Wednesday. Month-on-month Retail Sales are estimated to have grown by 0.4% after declining 0.7% in May.
Indian Rupee FAQs
The Indian Rupee (INR) is one of the most sensitive currencies to external factors. The price of Crude Oil (the country is highly dependent on imported Oil), the value of the US Dollar – most trade is conducted in USD – and the level of foreign investment, are all influential. Direct intervention by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in FX markets to keep the exchange rate stable, as well as the level of interest rates set by the RBI, are further major influencing factors on the Rupee.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) actively intervenes in forex markets to maintain a stable exchange rate, to help facilitate trade. In addition, the RBI tries to maintain the inflation rate at its 4% target by adjusting interest rates. Higher interest rates usually strengthen the Rupee. This is due to the role of the ‘carry trade’ in which investors borrow in countries with lower interest rates so as to place their money in countries’ offering relatively higher interest rates and profit from the difference.
Macroeconomic factors that influence the value of the Rupee include inflation, interest rates, the economic growth rate (GDP), the balance of trade, and inflows from foreign investment. A higher growth rate can lead to more overseas investment, pushing up demand for the Rupee. A less negative balance of trade will eventually lead to a stronger Rupee. Higher interest rates, especially real rates (interest rates less inflation) are also positive for the Rupee. A risk-on environment can lead to greater inflows of Foreign Direct and Indirect Investment (FDI and FII), which also benefit the Rupee.
Higher inflation, particularly, if it is comparatively higher than India’s peers, is generally negative for the currency as it reflects devaluation through oversupply. Inflation also increases the cost of exports, leading to more Rupees being sold to purchase foreign imports, which is Rupee-negative. At the same time, higher inflation usually leads to the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) raising interest rates and this can be positive for the Rupee, due to increased demand from international investors. The opposite effect is true of lower inflation.