Markets will be watching the result of a closely contested Federal election in Canada today, with the governing Liberal Party narrowly ahead in final opinion polls.
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Today’s major event is the Canadian election, with new Prime Minister Carney of the governing Liberal Party attempting to win a fresh term in his own right. After becoming extremely unpopular during Trudeau’s premiership, the replacement of Trudeau by ex-Bank of England Governor Mark Carney pushed the Liberals back up into a lead in the opinion polls, which Polievre’s Conservatives have been mostly unable to dent. However, final opinion polls have shown a narrowing of the lead to just 2 points as voting gets underway. Results are expected later tonight. The Canadian Dollar is doing little, and the Forex market in general has been very quiet today.
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Stock markets are mixed so far today, with Asian indices ending Monday mostly higher, while major US indices in off-hours trading are showing minor declines.
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Bitcoin saw a firm recovery last week, in line with the general recoveries shown by most risk-on assets but has been unable to break above the key resistance level at $95,038 which continues to hold today. The longer this level survives tests from below, the more pivotal and tradable it will be come when we finally see either a breakout or a decisive bearish reversal.
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Japan’s top currency diplomat Mimura has denied reports that the US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a stronger Yen was “preferable”. The Yen, like the entire Forex market, has hardly moved today anyway.