Oil prices slid after Russia and Ukraine agreed to a maritime ceasefire. The move, though, was short-lived with crude oil prices trading higher in early morning trading today, ING’s commodity analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey note.
Plenty of supply risks hanging over the market
“This renewed strength comes as Russia insists that some conditions for the ceasefire are met before committing. They include lifting some sanctions on Russian banks and companies involved in the trade of agricultural products. In addition, any increase in oil supply could be limited, as Russia diverted oil flows to other markets following Western sanctions, so having little impact on supply.”
“It’s not entirely clear when the ceasefire would come into effect. That would depend on if and when Russia’s demands are met. Finally, there are still plenty of supply risks hanging over the market in the form of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, which could push the global oil market into deficit.”
“Numbers overnight from the American Petroleum Institute were bullish, with inventory draws across the board last week. US crude oil inventories fell by 4.6m barrels, which was very different from the almost 2m barrel increase the market expected. Cushing crude oil stocks fell by 600k barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks declining by 3.3m barrels and 1.3m barrels, respectively.”