SGX TSI Iron Ore Elliott Wave technical analysis [Video]

SGX TSI Iron Ore refers to the Singapore Exchange (SGX) TSI Iron Ore futures contract. It is a widely used benchmark for iron ore prices, based on The Steel Index (TSI), which tracks iron ore spot prices. The contract is primarily used for hedging and trading in the global iron ore market, especially by steel producers, miners, and traders. It is cash-settled and reflects the price of 62% Fe iron ore fines delivered to China.

After a sharp drop from February 20 to March 5, the index is recovering quickly and may continue its recovery from September 2024 to higher prices, provided the January lows continue to hold. However, once the corrective bounce from September 2024 reaches an extreme and becomes exhausted, the larger trend favors the downside—unless the price breaches the January 2024 highs.

Daily chart analysis

From the daily chart, it is evident that SGX TSI prices have remained sideways and choppy since October 2024. The minimum expectation now is for prices to extend the corrective bounce from the September 2024 low of 88.5, which marked the end of the bearish corrective sequence from January 2024. Therefore, at a minimum, the current bounce should correct the previous decline.

The first leg of this bullish corrective cycle ended with an impulsive structure in October 2024, followed by a pullback. Now, a proposed five-wave rally is expected to push the price toward 122.19. In the short term, the upside will remain favored as long as the price stays above 95.90.

Four-hour chart Analysis

The H4 chart illustrates the sub-waves, showing that the price is about to advance in wave 3 of (3). The faster it rises toward the previous high of February 2025, the more favorable this scenario will be.