- The New Zealand dollar has shown itself to be rather negative during the trading session on Friday, despite the fact that we have also seen quite a bit of volatility around the markets and very anti-US dollar moves and other currency pairs.
- I find this very interesting, and it does suggest that perhaps you should be paying close attention to this because this is a sign in and of itself at least about the New Zealand dollar if not possibly about risk appetite.
- The New Zealand dollar has broken below the 50 day EMA and I think that might be something worth paying attention to any break down from here and it looks like we’re going to close towards the bottom of the range for the session then the 0.5650 level is likely going to be your target.
If We Fall Further
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Underneath there it opens up the possibility of a drop all the way to the 0.55 level, but I think we probably don’t see that happen very easily unless of course there is a massive risk-off type of move around global markets. And I suppose that could be very possible considering everything that’s going on at the same time.
Over the longer term, I think you have to look at this as a market that is still consolidating, but you could, if you squint just a little bit, make an argument for a nasty bearish flag. So with that, I’m looking at this with suspicion. I think this just means we are not ready to break out to the upside for a bigger move, which the New Zealand dollar being a commodity currency is not a huge surprise as we are seeing demand drop across the board in most commodities.
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