Manufacturing PMIs deteriorated at a faster rate in May versus April amid fading boost from front-loading. Coincident indicators were downbeat, but the US-China tariff truce…
Official manufacturing PMI edged up to 49.5 in May on improved new orders and production. Real activity and export growth likely remained resilient on 2Y…
BoC to keep the policy rate on hold at its 4 June meeting (instead of a 25bps cut). With the policy rate at neutral, BoC…
Government maintained its goal of returning to a surplus by FY29; but deficit path has widened materially. Growth forecasts were downgraded across the forecast horizon.…
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut the cash rate by 25bps to 3.85%, as we had expected. The policy statement and Governor Bullock’s subsequent…
Activity data points to softening momentum from Q1, but industrial production has held up. Frontloaded exports and macro policy implementation to continue to support growth…
Q1 outperformance tells little about the remainder of 2025; growth momentum is likely to weaken. Growth forecast of 0.8% this year remains unchanged, but near-term…
The US has become the EU’s dominant trade partner in the last decade; tariffs could end that dominance. The UK offers the biggest near-term opportunity…
Q1 trimmed mean CPI fell into the RBA’s 2-3% target range for the first time since end-2021. The growth/stability trade-off likely favours more RBA cuts…
The optimism that US trade policies may lead to lower global tariffs is misplaced. The WTO under Trump is symptomatic of a wider crisis for…