NPC set targets for growth at 5%, inflation 2%, official budget deficit 4% of GDP, largely as we expected. We expect the announced fiscal stimulus…
Official manufacturing PMI rebounded in February; 2-month average suggests steady production activity. Trade performance likely weakened last month due to both the holiday and tariff…
US will deliver full reciprocal trade analysis on 1 April; it is likely to focus on 20 key economies initially. Tariff differentials are small, and…
Europe’s ability to defend itself and Ukraine is probably greater than is perceived. But in the short term and in the case of an all-out…
Headline SMEI edged down 0.5pts to 50.4 in February as current performance sub-index fell below 50. Tourism-related services activity dropped m/m after holiday boost; real…
RBNZ cuts OCR to 3.75%, signalling more front-loaded easing. We see 50bps of cuts in Q2 (25bps prior), 25bps in Q3 (unchanged), and a pause…
RBA delivered a hawkish cut and pushed back against market pricing of c.50bps more cuts in 2025. We now expect only one more 25bps cut…