US tariff revenues reached a record-high USD 12bn on 22 April; MTD, they are up 130% vs 2024 levels. At this pace, the increase in…
Tariff revenue won’t compensate for the fiscal costs of TCJA extensions. Added tariff revenues will be below 1% of GDP – most likely 0.5-0.9% of…
Q1 GDP growth remained solid at 5.4% y/y, providing a cushion to meet the annual growth target. March real activity growth beat market consensus by…
ECB’s April policy meeting could be a close call, but we lean towards a 25bps cut. For now, our base case is a June hold,…
Despite ‘Liberation Day’ announcements, we expect uncertainty to remain high over the coming months. Heightened trade policy uncertainty could potentially lower global GDP by c.1.0-1.5%.…
March PMIs beat market expectations, although Q1 momentum softened from Q4-2024. We raise our 2025 growth forecast to 4.8% from 4.5% on Q1 outperformance, firm…
The US has limited room to further hike tariffs on China under the Reciprocal Tariff Act. But tariff uncertainty remains high; result of the US-China…
Headline SMEI rebounded to an 11-month high of 51.2 in March on better performance and expectations. Both manufacturing and services activity recovered; credit conditions turned…
January-February activity data beat expectations, supported by fiscal front-loading. Property investment remained in a deep contraction; home prices declined further. Policy support should help contain…
Unlike Trump 1.0, ASEAN now faces increasing risk of direct effects of tariffs under Trump 2.0. ASEAN can be exposed to product-specific tariffs, and the…