The market reaction to today’s ‘liberation day’ will depend on the size of tariffs, geographical/sectorial distribution, and openness to negotiation. The announcement is due at 4PM ET/10PM CET, ING’s FX analysts Francesco Pesole notes.
Trump seems to be planning a 20% tariff on most US imports
“Media reports have suggested that Trump is planning a 20% tariff on most US imports, roughly equating to $660bn in expected revenues when taking the 3.3tr as a reference value for US imports. But it’s also been reported that a tiered system with different rates or a customised approach is being considered. Expectations are also that some sensitive sectors can be excluded to minimise the impact on US producers and consumers.”
“The second layer of FX impact will depend on the geographical distribution of tariffs. Markets may be taking the 20% flat rate as a baseline, which can generate a stronger dollar reaction across the board, but the details of country-specific and product-specific duties should determine how single currencies will behave in the crosses. We still think European currencies are facing greater downside risks in this sense.”
“We have seen some sharp outperformance of AUD, NZD, NOK and CAD overnight as a flat tariff as opposed to case-specific reciprocal tariffs is seen as slightly more lenient and crucially less unpredictable. Our view remains that downside risks dominate for all currencies against the dollar today. The US may try to announce the harsher measures today before eventually scaling it back, which may still force a positioning rotation into USD and JPY with high beta currencies taking the bigger hit.”