EUR/USD Analysis Summary Today
- Overall Trend: Bearish.
- Today’s EUR/USD Support Levels: 1.1400 – 1.1330 – 1.1200.
- Today’s EUR/USD Resistance Levels: 1.1520 – 1.1600 – 1.1730.
EUR/USD Trading Signals:
- Buy EUR/USD from the support level of 1.1370 with a target of 1.1600 and a stop loss of 1.1300.
- Sell EUR/USD from the resistance level of 1.1600 with a target of 1.1400 and a stop loss of 1.1700.
EUR/USD Technical Analysis Today:
Amid strong and cautious activity, which we have often warned about its reaction, a robust US GDP report and the Federal Reserve’s cautious policy stance have pushed the US dollar higher. Consequently, selling pressure on EUR/USD increased, leading to losses that extended to the 1.1400 support level, the lowest for the currency pair in over a month, before it stabilized around 1.1455 at the time of writing. The recent performance confirms the strength of the bearish shift for the Euro/US dollar pair.
According to the daily timeframe chart, the movement of technical indicators confirms the bearish shift for EUR/USD. The 14-day RSI (Relative Strength Index) is stable around a reading of 35, confirming the bearish trend, and it has more time and room for losses before reaching oversold levels. Simultaneously, the MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) lines are confirming a downward turn. The 1.1370 and 1.1300 support levels could represent good buying opportunities for EUR/USD at this time.
On the bullish side, and with a no-deposit bonus, for the EUR/USD pair to return to at least a neutral stance, it needs to break above the 1.1630 resistance level again. Otherwise, the bearish shift will remain in effect. The Euro/dollar price may remain subject to reactions to US trade wars against other global economies, as well as the future policies of global central banks regarding tightening or not.
Today’s EUR/USD data, as reported in the economic calendar, includes the German CPI reading and German employment change at 10:55 AM EEST. This is followed by the Eurozone unemployment rate at 12:00 PM EEST. Then, the most important US data will be released: the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index, along with weekly jobless claims and employment cost data, all at 3:30 PM EEST.
Trading Tips:
Traders are advised to take advantage of the recent decline in EUR/USD prices to build a new buying base for the currency pair, while trading without risk, regardless of the strength of available trading opportunities.
US Dollar Gains Positive Momentum:
According to forex currency market trading, the US dollar gained strong positive momentum against other major currencies. Economic data released on Wednesday showed that the US economy grew by 3.0% year-on-year in the second quarter, surpassing consensus expectations and reinforcing the Federal Reserve’s subsequent decision to maintain US interest rates at their current levels. For its part, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the fifth consecutive time, showing few indications of a willingness to cut them in September.
Consequently, interest rate futures showed that traders reduced the probability of a September rate cut to about 40%, down from approximately 60% before the decision. Overall, this led to an increase in US bond yields and the dollar.
On the euro front, New Eurostat figures showed that the eurozone economy grew by a modest 0.1% in the second quarter, slowing sharply from 0.6% in the first quarter but exceeding expectations for steady growth. Spain and France outperformed, expanding by 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively, while Germany and Italy each contracted by 0.1%. In Spain, inflation rose more than expected in July.
On the trade front, investor sentiment remained cautious amid concerns that the new US-EU trade agreement would favor the US, offering limited relief to the eurozone’s sluggish outlook.
Meanwhile, expectations of a European Central Bank interest rate cut have been further postponed. Currently, markets estimate a 90% probability of a 25-basis point cut by March 2026. Meanwhile, the probability of a move in December has fallen to 30%.
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